Ecuador to retain shrimp market edge, but experts split on whether 2025 volumes to drop
Ecuador to retain shrimp market edge, but experts split on whether 2025 volumes to drop
The main takeaway from the shrimp panel at the recent Global Seafood Marketing Council (GSMC) in the US state of California is that Ecuador retains a competitive edge over Asian product sold into the US market, though experts were divided on whether it will continue to increase production after last year fell short of expectations. The headline figure from the panel was that global vannamei production is projected see a slight increase in 2025 to 5.06 million metric tons, but a drop in Ecuador from 1.4m to 1.35m metric tons. The production forecast is based on numbers supplied by Robins McIntosh of Charoen Pokphand Foods, which Undercurrent News also covered. McIntosh gave Undercurrent a revised number for China down to 1.14m metric tons, taking the total below 5m metric tons.
On Ecuador, Richard Barry from the National Fisheries Institute (NFI) presented the same number which McIntosh gave to Undercurrent, predicting the aforementioned drop. However, according to Gabriel Luna, of GLuna Shrimp, an Ecuadorian shrimp sector expert, many farmers have adapted to the lower prices and are maintaining production. “For that a drop to be the case, that would mean the last 18 months of farmers adapting to the lower prices didn’t work. But that’s not the case,” said Luna. Farmers have adjusted to produce with the low prices seen in 2024, he said. “Some failed in their readjustment, but there have been a bunch of successful cases who had great results.” Then, an increase in prices came at the end of 2024, which created an incentive for more production. “I don’t see a lower amount of shrimp coming from Ecuador. It will remain as is or be plus or minus 5%; that’s a tie.” Said Luna. On black tiger shrimp, the GSMC forecast is for around 500,000t for 2025, up around 40,000t on 2024. China’s production of black tigers is forecasted to increase 23% to 190,000t.
Above article are excerpt from: https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2025/02/04/ecuador-to-retain-shrimp-market-edge-but-experts-split-on-whether-2025-volumes-to-drop/
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